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Cake day: July 23rd, 2023

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  • I’d like to remind everyone that 8 years ago, the polls showed Hillary was going to trounce Trump pretty handedly. There was tons of discussion after the election about how the polls could be so wrong.

    I think Fivethityeight’s explanation went something like…

    If a candidate is only polling 40% to their opponents’s 60%, and you were to run the election 10 times with a different sampling of voters each time, it doesn’t mean that the candidate will lose by 60% every time. It means they’re going to win four times out of ten.

    Don’t let polls lull you into either complacency or despair. The only thing polls are really good for is giving pundits something to talk about in the 24 hour news cycle. Polls don’t decide the election. Only actual votes on actual ballots that are actually submitted in time decide the election.








  • Some context that you left out…

    MPD says several officers from Columbus Ohio observed a man, armed with a knife in each hand, and was engaged in an ‘altercation’ with another man they say was unarmed.

    They say officers identified themselves as police officers and made several commands for the 43-year-old to drop the knife.

    Police say the man refused and charged at the unarmed man with the knives. That’s when several officers discharged their firearms, killing the 43-year-old man.

    Surveillance video appears to show the shooting in the middle of Vliet St.

    TMJ4 acquired the bodycam video of the Columbus officers from MPD.

    Two knives were recovered from the scene, according to MPD.










  • Honestly, I feel like if districts are gonna be drawn, it’d make more sense to just choose some algorithm and have a computer do it.

    I’ve thought about this exactly. Here’s my idea.

    Crowd source the algorithm every X years. Anybody with basic skills in map making and programming can submit a candidate algorithm. Candidates are scored by…

    A) how well they evenly distribute the population across districts (eg +X points for every extra person a district has above a perfectly even distribution), and…

    B) how simple the districts are (eg. +Y points for every corner each district boundary has.), which would prevent any kind of gerrymandering.

    Lowest score with above example points system wins. Winner gets to have their name on any ballots used while the districts chosen by the algorithm are used. Or something. 🤷