bjorney

What (widely popular) race could possibly be a better metric of endurance than the marathon?

Wrong link/title?

AI isn’t supposed to be creative, it’s isn’t even capable of that. It’s meant to min/max it’s evaluation criterion against a test dataset

It does this by regurgitating the training data associated with a given input as closely as possible

These people aren’t placing bets on who they want to win, they are placing bets where the house odds differ from the actual expected outcome. The people throwing big money on this are doing it based on actual data (amalgamating polls, etc), not just gut feelings.

If I think Kamala has a 45% chance of winning the election and the bookie is giving her implied odds of 40%, I should take that bet, because even though I think she will lose, I stand to make a 12.5% ROI on my bet. I can then hedge that bet on another bookmaker giving a 48% implied odds, and if enough people do this the bookmakers odds will converge on 44%

but either way I don’t think this “market” knew more than the mainstream media was telling us.

No, but it is a culmination of all the available public information (and some private information you won’t find elsewhere) in a single metric. If you read a single article you would assume there is either a 100% Biden drops out or a 0% chance - if you read every single news article in existence, aggregated all social media buzz, polls, etc, into a statistical likelihood, you would likely come out with a number that closely matches the odds.

Biden was only going to drop out once, so you can’t say how closely these odds matched the actual likelihood on this specific measure, but if you analyze hundreds of predictive markets like this, the implied odds pretty strongly correlate with the actual binomial outcomes

It’s unavoidable - once the cheese gets hot enough the steam will either force the liquid cheese out of existing holes, or it will make its own holes.

Make sure they are fresh out of the freezer when you put them in, as this lets the outside crisp up more before the inside becomes lava. Once you get close to the prescribed cooking time, you need to just sit in front of the oven door and watch them, and as soon as 2-3 break open, take the whole tray out

Tesla still sells nearly 10x the number of EVs (BEVs) to the next most popular brand (globally).

Tesla only sold 4% more EVs than BYD last quarter

10 days without food hits differently when you are hiking through mountains 16 hours a day vs sitting on your couch