Reminder that you guys should go out and vote. Trump has been ahead since September 2023. Don’t let the echo chamber make you feel like it’s a done deal. That’s what I thought until I saw this article.
Reminder that you guys should go out and vote. Trump has been ahead since September 2023. Don’t let the echo chamber make you feel like it’s a done deal. That’s what I thought until I saw this article.
I think people who place bets on politicians are not a great representation of the whole population. Biden was behind Trump by a lot too.
Betting markets also work based on available information.
Harris hasn’t really started campaigning but the betting markets are getting money down for her and as such adjust the odds.
I also want to point out that these articles also act as an advertisement for the betting markets.
I don’t expect anyone to stop posting about them but this is one way they gain business - getting stories published during notable events to bring in the suckers.
These people aren’t placing bets on who they want to win, they are placing bets where the house odds differ from the actual expected outcome. The people throwing big money on this are doing it based on actual data (amalgamating polls, etc), not just gut feelings.
If I think Kamala has a 45% chance of winning the election and the bookie is giving her implied odds of 40%, I should take that bet, because even though I think she will lose, I stand to make a 12.5% ROI on my bet. I can then hedge that bet on another bookmaker giving a 48% implied odds, and if enough people do this the bookmakers odds will converge on 44%