WW3, probably started with China over something or other in the South China Sea, and I don’t think the magats are putting the country in a position to win it, so they’ll be put on trial after the war.
Civil war, and I trust the lesson of history that shows time and time again that authoritatian regimes never end well.
Either way, there will be a lot of casualties, is the bad news.
And then the country will be rebuilt, long after you and I are gone, it will enjoy a few decades of prosperity, and then it will happen all over again. That too is another lesson of history.
Hm… IDK about World War 3. Every big country except the US right now is pretty cautious about trying to inflame conflicts that might come back and bite the leaders’ cushy positions. China’s water-cannons-and-flares caution in escalating in the South China Sea, and Russia’s “final warning” caution in doing anything directly military against NATO, are two pretty good examples. I think they’ll take special care to make sure the US is out of the picture before doing anything, and at that point, I don’t think any of their regional snatching would be likely to inflame WW3. It could of course. Russia could start stepping on Eastern Europe and NATO-minus-US could start bombing him, and shit could pop off, but my guess is they will continue with the same level of caution they have been. Always watching closely to make sure it won’t cause trouble, like little birds that want to steal sugar from the outdoor cafe table.
There is also the factor that Trump really doesn’t like war. He occasionally does inflammatory shit like assassinating Soleimani, but he doesn’t like kicking off real war or doing deterrence, for the same reason he hates firing people himself or doing interviews or press conferences: Because he is a spineless little turd.
(Edit: I should add to this: It is absurd to try to make predictions. World War 3 is certainly on the table, as is more or less every other damn thing. The only predictions I feel pretty confident about are that Israel will take some big steps these next few years towards totally eradicating Palestine, even more so than they have, and that Trump will fuck some shit up in ways we couldn’t have even forseen.)
Civil war, I think, is moderately likely. I think it’s more likely than not that the good guys will win, if it does come to that. I also think a fracturing of the US into semi-autonomous states to some degree, without or without a precipitating war, is moderately likely. I do not see the federal government recovering back to its earlier status any time soon, if Trump gets a chance to really destroy it, which it seems like he will.
One interesting side effect is that I think extremely qualified scientific and policy experts may start flooding out of the US, looking for something useful to do with themselves now that the US doesn’t want them, and they may prove themselves pretty useful to the rest of the world, just like Hungarians or Germans in the mid 20th century. In the vacuum created by the collapse in all these different random humanitarian endeavors the US has been doing, whole little cottage industries might spring up assisted by all kinds of ex-US people in various capacities.
My guess is that one of two things will happen:
Either way, there will be a lot of casualties, is the bad news.
And then the country will be rebuilt, long after you and I are gone, it will enjoy a few decades of prosperity, and then it will happen all over again. That too is another lesson of history.
Hm… IDK about World War 3. Every big country except the US right now is pretty cautious about trying to inflame conflicts that might come back and bite the leaders’ cushy positions. China’s water-cannons-and-flares caution in escalating in the South China Sea, and Russia’s “final warning” caution in doing anything directly military against NATO, are two pretty good examples. I think they’ll take special care to make sure the US is out of the picture before doing anything, and at that point, I don’t think any of their regional snatching would be likely to inflame WW3. It could of course. Russia could start stepping on Eastern Europe and NATO-minus-US could start bombing him, and shit could pop off, but my guess is they will continue with the same level of caution they have been. Always watching closely to make sure it won’t cause trouble, like little birds that want to steal sugar from the outdoor cafe table.
There is also the factor that Trump really doesn’t like war. He occasionally does inflammatory shit like assassinating Soleimani, but he doesn’t like kicking off real war or doing deterrence, for the same reason he hates firing people himself or doing interviews or press conferences: Because he is a spineless little turd.
(Edit: I should add to this: It is absurd to try to make predictions. World War 3 is certainly on the table, as is more or less every other damn thing. The only predictions I feel pretty confident about are that Israel will take some big steps these next few years towards totally eradicating Palestine, even more so than they have, and that Trump will fuck some shit up in ways we couldn’t have even forseen.)
Civil war, I think, is moderately likely. I think it’s more likely than not that the good guys will win, if it does come to that. I also think a fracturing of the US into semi-autonomous states to some degree, without or without a precipitating war, is moderately likely. I do not see the federal government recovering back to its earlier status any time soon, if Trump gets a chance to really destroy it, which it seems like he will.
One interesting side effect is that I think extremely qualified scientific and policy experts may start flooding out of the US, looking for something useful to do with themselves now that the US doesn’t want them, and they may prove themselves pretty useful to the rest of the world, just like Hungarians or Germans in the mid 20th century. In the vacuum created by the collapse in all these different random humanitarian endeavors the US has been doing, whole little cottage industries might spring up assisted by all kinds of ex-US people in various capacities.