but also the possibility that Israel might get overrun by massive enemies it is completely surrounded by which would, more or less, crush it like a bug without our formidable assistance in terms of military aid and deterrance.
While that is a view that has been cultivated by Israel, and would have to be combatted in the electorate and elected officials of the US in case of policy change, it’s not realistic. Considering its primary foes in past conflicts, Egypt and Jordan, are US-aligned and cold-but-cooperative towards Israel; and Syria, which is… not currently in any position to offer serious hostility. The Saudis have no serious interest in destroying Israel, and while Iraq is subverted enough by Iran that, if push came to shove, it might allow Iranian forces to cross, it’s unlikely to take a serious interest in the matter itself. And I don’t think even the clerical fascists of Iran are crazy enough to think they have that kind of long-distance force-projection capability for a serious and sustained war - especially not when the Saudis would love any excuse to fuck with them, whatever claims of detente have been recently.
I don’t think even the clerical fascists of Iran are crazy enough to think they have that kind of long-distance force-projection capability for a serious and sustained war
The former government of Yemen has its hand up. Yes? Something to share with the class?
Israel is 8,500 square miles big. That’s it. There are cities in China that are bigger than Israel.
I mostly agree with the rest of your assessment, although I would argue that a lot of that reluctance to attack Israel from the US-aligned states in the region could change dramatically if the US started making noises about how we weren’t on Team Israel anymore. Some leader might get stars in their eyes about how they could get written into the history of the Middle East forever, and not have to deal with any American aircraft carriers coming around and making him regret it. But assuming that Iran wouldn’t take the opportunity to fuck up Israel with quite a bit of cooperation and safe passage from somebody in the area seems crazy to me.
Iran is 636,000 square miles big. Size isn’t always the determining factor, but they’re also not a weak regional power or shy about picking fights with dangerous opponents.
Again: I think we should have threatened Israel with this type of outcome, if they don’t stop committing a stain on the soul of the world. I’m just saying it is not a small consequence to start tossing around, for someone who works in a building where Israel is for some godforsaken reason regarded as the good guys. Also, Trump seems to love Israel and strongly dislike all arabs, so it’s weird to me that there’s this kind of propaganda realignment that says he’s invested in stopping Israel from what they’re doing. I think he wants to accelerate it, and I think that’s going to be the result.
While that is a view that has been cultivated by Israel, and would have to be combatted in the electorate and elected officials of the US in case of policy change, it’s not realistic. Considering its primary foes in past conflicts, Egypt and Jordan, are US-aligned and cold-but-cooperative towards Israel; and Syria, which is… not currently in any position to offer serious hostility. The Saudis have no serious interest in destroying Israel, and while Iraq is subverted enough by Iran that, if push came to shove, it might allow Iranian forces to cross, it’s unlikely to take a serious interest in the matter itself. And I don’t think even the clerical fascists of Iran are crazy enough to think they have that kind of long-distance force-projection capability for a serious and sustained war - especially not when the Saudis would love any excuse to fuck with them, whatever claims of detente have been recently.
The former government of Yemen has its hand up. Yes? Something to share with the class?
Israel is 8,500 square miles big. That’s it. There are cities in China that are bigger than Israel.
I mostly agree with the rest of your assessment, although I would argue that a lot of that reluctance to attack Israel from the US-aligned states in the region could change dramatically if the US started making noises about how we weren’t on Team Israel anymore. Some leader might get stars in their eyes about how they could get written into the history of the Middle East forever, and not have to deal with any American aircraft carriers coming around and making him regret it. But assuming that Iran wouldn’t take the opportunity to fuck up Israel with quite a bit of cooperation and safe passage from somebody in the area seems crazy to me.
Iran is 636,000 square miles big. Size isn’t always the determining factor, but they’re also not a weak regional power or shy about picking fights with dangerous opponents.
Again: I think we should have threatened Israel with this type of outcome, if they don’t stop committing a stain on the soul of the world. I’m just saying it is not a small consequence to start tossing around, for someone who works in a building where Israel is for some godforsaken reason regarded as the good guys. Also, Trump seems to love Israel and strongly dislike all arabs, so it’s weird to me that there’s this kind of propaganda realignment that says he’s invested in stopping Israel from what they’re doing. I think he wants to accelerate it, and I think that’s going to be the result.