edit 2: for whoever downvoted, I would love to hear why.

Probably because you told/showed them what they don’t want to hear.

It is almost half. There’s a spectrum on the right (as there is on the left of course). The hardcore maga cultists are a little over a third – like you say, 35-37%. But then there are the conservatives who aren’t extremists like them but are still very conservative, so yes, it’s almost half the population. Trump has 42-45% who are definitely going to vote for him no matter what–the rest beyond the maga contingent are the conservatives such as the one-issue anti-abortion segment and the rich who want his tax and deregulation policies; they don’t care about his character flaws or even preserving democracy for that matter.

There are also some conservatives, not many, who previously voted for him and would again, but have come to recognize that trump is so extreme and dangerous that they either won’t vote for him or will hold their nose and vote for a Dem this time, hopefully enough to tip the election in her favor.

Almost half the country is right wing and the electoral college gives their votes much more weight. That’s just a fact. That means you can’t win a national election without tacking toward their views in some areas, mainly the areas of concern to those in the swing states that will decide the election. You can’t win by pleasing only your own base. Until we either abolish the electoral college and move to popular vote, or liberals/left wing/whatever you want to call it, reach a majority of the population substantial enough to overcome the electoral college.

Neither of those things looks likely to happen anytime soon, so the only option is to deal with our current reality and develop a strategy to win under these circumstances, but at the same time we should also be working to create a movement to amend the constitution to decide national elections by popular vote.

edit to change “half” to “almost half”–gotta recognize there are some more in the middle.

According to Taylor Swift’s post, Trump and his propagandists posting fake pictures of Swift implying she was endorsing him is one reason she went ahead and came out with this statement endorsing Harris now, to refute the fake stuff they are circulating. So their stupid plan massively backfired.

Maybe Swift would have come out to endorse Harris at some point anyway, but doing it now gives people more time to get registered before the deadline.

1. Polls haven’t been accurate for years and Silver takes and massages them to come up with his predictions. Always make sure you VOTE, no matter what any polls or pundits are saying.

2. The Center Square is a conservative publication. Nate Silver currently works for Polymarket, an online betting company funded by Peter Thiel and crypto bros. So it’s to both of their advantages to paint a picture that looks better for Trump. Remember, those who want to get trump in power need magats to believe that trump will surely win and that if he doesn’t, it can only because the election was rigged by evil democrats. That way they give cover for corrupt red state election boards to refuse to certify their votes and red state legislatures to challenge results in the courts, force recounts and delays, certify and send invalid electors next January, and have a cohort of people ready and willing to fight or be violent if needed.

3. Yes, the election is close, so make sure you VOTE no matter how optimistic or pessimistic you may feel about all this and no matter what state you live in, no matter whether it’s a red, blue, or swing state. The margins need to be as large as possible in every state and the popular vote margin also as huge as possible so there is no question of the will of the people.

There was a pile of dead mosquitos on the floor beneath where he was standing. Looking at them under a microscope they appeared to have died in agony.

The only thing I “understand” is that all the rules are arbitrary as all fuck, society was made up by idiots with giant sticks up their arses, and everyone should go fuck themselves.

See? They were right, you do understand now. 😜

“which begs the question …”

I hate this phrase a lot. First, it comes from the term ‘begging the question’ which is a stupid name for a particular type of logical fallacy that doesn’t even make sense for its intended meaning. But no one uses in the intended way anyway. They use it to mean “raises the question” or “prompts the question”.

As in: John hasn’t been to work for a couple days, which begs the question ‘is he sick?’". No it doesn’t beg the question, it raises it. You beg for something, so you can beg a person for money or beg a dog to stop barking, etc. but you can’t beg a question for anything.

So it’s a doubly stupid phrase that makes me cringe every time I hear it whether it’s used “correctly” or not.

Better to just say, “You’re so weird” and then ignore him and continue with her debate points, not ask moderator for help. If he keeps doing it work it into a response like “I will work to earn the respect of people, not try to intimidate them like this weirdo here.”

David Plouffe, an adviser to former President Barack Obama who recently joined the Harris campaign, posted on social media: "Now, he seems only comfortable in a cocoon, asking his happy place Fox to host a Trump rally and call it a debate. Maybe he can only handle debating someone his own age.

Exactly. Can you imagine trying to conduct a debate with him at one of his rallies?

Moderator: Would you choose the shark or electrocution?

Trump: I’ll take electrocution every time

Harris: I am the shark

I saw someone mentioned that if something happened and a seat was vacated early, one of the justices whose term had expired could be brought in to serve in that seat until it is filled with a new person at the next scheduled time. But that seems to mean that some other justice(s) more senior than the one who vacated might wind up serving more than the normal 18 years as they wouldn’t be replaced until the next cycle.

As far as a president getting to appoint 3 justices in one term, we just had that with trump. IMO there really should be more than just 9 seats. A common suggestion is 13, one for each District.

Which is why the Heritage Foundation made sure to spell out a 900-page plan this time.

I actually said it wrong in that way the other day even though I usually get it right without having to think about it too much. It happens. Once we start hearing it all the time it’ll be easy, but in the meantime it may help to think of it as being “Kamla” which comes out sounding just the same.

Oh good grief, don’t put words in my mouth. That’s not what I said and you know it. I said don’t buy the crap that we’re about to be flooded with. I never said you can’t criticize her. You can believe and criticize any valid reality-based you want to, but check the facts first.

Would that cushion the blow?

Are Democrats finally finding a more effective way to counter MAGAt crazy ideas than just using logic and reasoning? I hope so!

Brace yourself for a massive disinformation campaign against Harris as soon as they recover from the initial shock. Don’t buy into any crap you see about her going forward. Eat no for breakfast.

Which is why they got trump to pick Vance for VP, who is young and all in on project 2025, to be their chosen figurehead for the future. They don’t care about or like trump; they’re just using him as their vehicle to get in power and that’s it. After that they’re fine with/hoping for him to drop dead ASAP after the inauguration so they can usher in their full agenda. Meantime trump is only the symbolic figurehead and if by chance he doesn’t go along with their plans (unlikely), they can always use the 25th Amendment to get rid of him.

Yeah TBH I haven’t read about all the details of the candidates’ vulnerabilities so I was just going by their stats and locations. I’m sure we’ll hear all about whatever downsides whoever gets picked has. I really don’t see what could be gained by picking Cooper from NC though. Everyone also assumes it can’t be Whitmer because you can’t have two women, which is pretty irritating. It would be nice if having a two-woman ticket would be thought of as normal or even possible but I’m too old to ever see that happen in my lifetime.

Yep. Trump pulled his judge picks right off the wish list of extremist judges the Heritage Foundation hand-picked for him. It’s sickening how many judges he got to appoint, on top of getting to choose 3! 😭 SCOTUS justices (one of the seats was stolen by McConnell).

Of course one of those judges was Aileen Cannon who after delaying the classified docs case against him as long as possible, finally went ahead and tossed it out completely on the ridiculous grounds that there shouldn’t have been a special prosecutor for it.