It’s probably a trap…but beating him there would be a huge huge fucking deal. Trump took the last debate on Biden teams terms and despite that Biden still cocked it up and that made the burn worse(had that debate been on Fox the age issues would have been blamed on their audio mixing and editing and the room being too hot and crap). If Trump loses on his own turf on his rules with his followers watching?

Problem is that weakens the dems, see Ralph Nader

It’s actually really debatable which side RFK is drawing more from, it’s gone back and forth. Same with the Libertarians this year, there’s been an internal shakeup and Chase Oliver is a democrat, but most of the base leans right, but not all of them especially the quieter ones.

The Constitution Party is still firm right and the Greens and PSL are still firm left, albeit even then outside of the PSL there’s *'s on that(The Greens are pro-Russia and the Constitution Party guy was a democrat for one year after a decade as a Republican).

Like if you support third parties in general aiming for the center(which RFK is given that both sides have accused him of being a spoiler) is the best bet, and getting the other 3rd parties in line helps. Interested to see if he can break the 5 percent funding margin to get on debates and get national funding. 2000 was the last election that was at play for anyone.

If you assume he’s legit(which maybe? I’ve heard rumors the leaks about him working with Trump were fake because the Republicans are panicking and fear he’ll siphon votes, some people blame the Dems, some people say it’s true, honestly all 3 are possible at this point though I lean to the first one) getting the Libertarians and whatever is left of the Reform Party with him is probably the best possible call for RFK.

There’s been a bit of a Libertarian revolt internally, the Colorado branch defected to Kennedy and the party’s been a bit directionless since Chase Oliver turned the party leftward and broke with the old Gary Johnson clique. And the Reform Party died when they lost Nader in 2005, they haven’t been relevant in years. There’s also a couple small state level parties joining RFK’s coalition who used to work with the Constitution Party so who knows what they’ll do. Every third party who isn’t the Green Party or PSL has some degree of interest in RFK Jr

None older that Cooper who got on state ballots no

Fair enough, but still, saying Trump is the oldest nominee ever, period, is wrong. He’s Number 2(albeit he’d have to last his whole term to beat Biden, similar to his prior age thing with Reagan in 2016) behind Cooper.

I’m just pointing out that the base line statement is wrong. If you wanna say 'Oldest Republican Nominee Ever" there is literally zero wiggle room on that, unblockable. Otherwise they can either say Biden is older right now and still fit to serve(or bring up that he was Trump’s age back in 2022 and they said he was fine), OR just pull up Cooper. Also I happen to like Peter Cooper. Look at the beard on that lad. That’s the one fact he has going for him and if people forget that he’ll be gone faster than JFK being known for being a catholic.

Yeah this was in the era of the Know Nothings so that’s good

Mostly true. You could argue if Major Primary Contenders should be counted(Top 3 would be unchanged) and Biden is still the older President, Trump would have to win and make it to his 4th and final year to beat that. Reagan issue, people debated the definition back in 2016 too.

Just maybe hold off then, if Biden fucking croaks or something it’ll make the Democrats look worse for not taking their guy’s age seriously. Make sure he’s fine and not COVIDous for a few days

The definition of major party was fuzzy back in the civil war reconstruction era

Again, for the record, Peter Cooper is the record holder for oldest Nominee. Trump is second and Biden is third(albeit Biden is still older by the Reagan metric of end of office if Trump ends up losing or dies midway through). If you wanna say oldest REPUBLICAN ever go for it, that’s a far safer claim that’s not made incorrect thanks to Peter Cooper or vulnerable to debating the exact definition like Biden is(like he was A Nominee in the primaries, he just didn’t become THE Nominee). Also making this argument makes the ‘Biden should resign’ thing worse so, maybe hold off on that. There’s plenty of legitimate anti-Trump arguments that can be expressed as simple factual statements. Trump is rapist. No need to get into the age shit

I’m going off the week 1 polls. She was weaker than everyone else when adjusted for name recognition and was the only one within the margins of Biden. I also don’t disagree on the base point, but there’s 3 months, the war machine needs time to spool up and the Republicans have had a 2 week headstart. It’s gonna be tight and Pensyllvania is not going well

The last thing anybody wants is Trump pulling it out and calling all the headlines lies. Surprised Biden never did actually

(also wild beard on that guy

Just FYI so you don’t get ‘gotchaed’, Trump isn’t the oldest nominee ever. Neither was Biden. Record is still held by Peter Cooper from the reconstruction era who was 84 when nominated.

Assuming the new candidate(probably Harris) avoid any major disasters as does Trump, we’ll be returning to the May 2024 status quo of things. Harris is more popular than post-debate Biden, was slightly behind pre-debate Biden, and will probably need a month to get back there(winning the nomination and undoing all the damage from 4 weeks of infighting.)

On the plus side, that’ll drop the hemorrhaging, New Mexico and New Jersey safe, Virginia and Minnesota probably safe. On the downside at this point Georgia and North Carolina are lost, there just isn’t time and the Republicans spent 4 years pouring resources into them.

This is back to the main 5. Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The important factor is that if they lose Pennsylvania, they lose. They can win the other 4 here, but it’s 268-270. Unless they snag something extra like Georgia(unlikely in this scenario), that’s it.

If they win Pennsylvania, they need at least two others in ideal circumstances(Michigan needs to be one of the two and Nevada can’t be one of the two, second one would have to be Wisconsin or Arizona), 3 others in unideal circumstances if Michigan isn’t there and they get Nevada. I should also note several of these scenarios are razor thin (270-268 with Pensylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and 271-267 with Arizona instead) and thus vulnerable to faithless electors. Or worse, if Maine’s statewide went red(which is more likely than Georgia going blue or Virginia going red at this point) the former would be a win and the latter would be a tie. In the tie scenario the House picks the president(so Trump) and the Senate picks the Vice President(so Vance would be ousted) which would be an absolute nightmare and gambling on Trump dying in that situation isn’t worth it.

I note this because even in the base line May scenario Pennsylvania was one of the worse polling one for democrats(Arizona and Wisconsin were the blue edging ones), and Pennsylvania is not a state where the stars are aligning. It was Biden’s home state, Scranton boy, him being off the ticket hurts things there probably more than they help. AND, while it’s true nationwide the post-shooting bump for Trump was relatively minor, Pennsylvania is where the shooting happened and has gotten the largest bump in the polls since, 3 or 4 points. Biden leaving demotivates the base there harder than anywhere else in the county and the Trump shooting re-motivated the base there harder than most.

My call? If they don’t pick Shapiro or Whitmer, it’s over 100%, and even with it’s iffy. Pennsylvania is perhaps the one state where any replacement is going to do worse than Biden even post-debate, and the one state the Trump shooting caused a notable bump. What are the odds it’s also the single most crucial state in this election?

Assuming the new candidate(probably Harris) avoid any major disasters as does Trump, we’ll be returning to the May 2024 status quo of things. Harris is more popular than post-debate Biden, was slightly behind pre-debate Biden, and will probably need a month to get back there(winning the nomination and undoing all the damage from 4 weeks of infighting.)

On the plus side, that’ll drop the hemorrhaging, New Mexico and New Jersey safe, Virginia and Minnesota probably safe. On the downside at this point Georgia and North Carolina are lost, there just isn’t time and the Republicans spent 4 years pouring resources into them.

This is back to the main 5. Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The important factor is that if they lose Pennsylvania, they lose. They can win the other 4 here, but it’s 268-270. Unless they snag something extra like Georgia(unlikely in this scenario), that’s it.

If they win Pennsylvania, they need at least two others in ideal circumstances(Michigan needs to be one of the two and Nevada can’t be one of the two, second one would have to be Wisconsin or Arizona), 3 others in unideal circumstances if Michigan isn’t there and they get Nevada. I should also note several of these scenarios are razor thin (270-268 with Pensylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and 271-267 with Arizona instead) and thus vulnerable to faithless electors. Or worse, if Maine’s statewide went red(which is more likely than Georgia going blue or Virginia going red at this point) the former would be a win and the latter would be a tie. In the tie scenario the House picks the president(so Trump) and the Senate picks the Vice President(so Vance would be ousted) which would be an absolute nightmare and gambling on Trump dying in that situation isn’t worth it.

I note this because even in the base line May scenario Pennsylvania was one of the worse polling one for democrats(Arizona and Wisconsin were the blue edging ones), and Pennsylvania is not a state where the stars are aligning. It was Biden’s home state, Scranton boy, him being off the ticket hurts things there probably more than they help. AND, while it’s true nationwide the post-shooting bump for Trump was relatively minor, Pennsylvania is where the shooting happened and has gotten the largest bump in the polls since, 3 or 4 points. Biden leaving demotivates the base there harder than anywhere else in the county and the Trump shooting re-motivated the base there harder than most.

My call? If they don’t pick Shapiro or Whitmer, it’s over 100%, and even with it’s iffy. Pennsylvania is perhaps the one state where any replacement is going to do worse than Biden even post-debate, and the one state the Trump shooting caused a notable bump. What are the odds it’s also the single most crucial state in this election?

(Don’t know why the link isn’t in OP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tMgHGeEGzg)