Here’s a recent poll where Michele Obama came out more than two margins of errors of ahead of Trump.
Also, here’s a pile of salt.

It is most certainly not a small sample size. It’s what allows for a margin of error of ±3.5%* at the 95% confidence level. Here’s a graph of the margin of error vs sample size for 95% confidence interval.

With an 11 point margin, there’s a clear separation of the upper limit bar for Trump and lower limit bar for Obama. For a single poll, assuming the rest of it was well designed and executed, this is an important spread. And the reasons are obvious if you look at the report. She’s able to get 10% more Democratic support and 20% more independent voter support.

Ipsos is a high quality polling company. They don’t make rookie mistakes like sample size. There may be other reasons beyond my reasoning that make this a bad use of polling, but sample size is not it.

* The source incorrectly reported the margin of error for the full survey, both registered and unregistered participants.

This quote from the article really hits home:

Afterward, his aides would try to explain that he had been sick. He had seen two doctors before the debate. He had a fever, a virus. He wasn’t himself.

But while he may have been sick, he was himself. That was the problem.

I can’t think of worse debate performance. Nixon profusely sweating? Pretty bad, but at least he was coherent.

Mondale not being able to counter Regan’s age deflecting quip? Damn. That’s so tough one when the crowds turned.

The Gore eye roll? Well damn that sucks.

But this was a debate long fugue state. At best, some Trump previous incoherent ramblings are close, but still not as bad.

This was seriously bad. And everyone failing to see that and trying to minimize it is attempting and failing to gaslight everyone else.

There maybe no replacement available, but at least call a spade a spade.

I’m talking about the date and time of it being changed. You wrote:

dropped the fact checking that afternoon

But from what I can tell, the rules had been set for a couple of months.

I can’t find anything to corroberate #4. Do you have a reference?

Sometimes we find inspiration where we least expect it.

Income based repayments such as SAVE calculate your payments as a percentage of your disposable income. This means it can be as low as $0 per month if you happen to be unemployed for even a short time. Interest still accrues, but doesn’t capitalize with SAVE. This can result in a “significant” balance.

Yep. He tipped on top of the delivery charge and taxes. I it was 20% tip button that doesn’t isolate food.

Listening to some Captain Beefheart, huh… I’ll grab my shiny rocks!

FDR died about a month before Hitler’s surrendered. His navigation of the depression was accomplished in no small part to democratic socialist policies.

I like to think that there’s an ongoing saga of wits between Steve and the local wizard possum. Steve is basically wily coyote here. And the possum is a mutha fuckin wizard!

Inevitably, I’ll get the people on here saying the polls are unreliable. Sure. That doesn’t change the fact that this is going to be close. Far closer than the electoral votes will reflect.

And the people that matter will be the groups highlighted in this article. Especially those who live in the six or seven swing states. And not, surprisingly, online leftists. I get there’s catharsis in flogging the people you see as responsible for the possiblity of the failure of democracy and possibly entering authoritarian and rule. But I’d you want to be effective, strategic efforts matter. Be effective.

So two things and I’ll let it be.

First, the migration issue has gained traction among voters in swing states [2]. Our system doesn’t reward the most popular candidste, but the one who can garner the most votes by state.

Swing states matter. And small, undecided groups in swing states matter most.

All the data and risk assessment mean very little. Politics are emotional. They are in the pain of today and worries of tomorrow.

I think your confidence is on shaky ground. And worry that Biden and the Democrats aren’t doing enough of the right things to be seen as better than anything else.

People of a certain level and type of education think data and policies mean more than sentiment and messaging. But for many,t he data is secondary. You can see my comment on gas prices and unemployment being rooted in data and vibes. But the vibes for most people are what matters. And the vibes on election day are what matter most to undecided voters. I don’t think either party really gets the sense of dread that most people have and may never get it.

Which midterm are you talking about? I’m assuming you’re talking about the 2018 mid-term when Democrats picked up 41 seats since they lost the House in 2022. But another way of looking at the last five midterms, you see the midterms going to the party that is not the president’s. So I don’t think that the 2018 midterms provide a great reference point for the presidential election. Additionally, those gains in the 2018 election have slowly eroded giving control in the house to the Republicans.

But I wanted to address your strategy first and foremost since you address messaging. The projected map has Biden at 226, Trump at 235, and 77 to close to call. Those 77 electoral votes are spread across six states:

• Nevada (6 electoral votes)
• Arizona (11)
• Wisconsin (10)
• Michigan (15)
• Pennsylvania (19)
• Georgia (16)

In 2020, all six went Biden by less than 5%. In the 2022 midterm, Republicans gained seats in the house from Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. If those three switch to Trump, Trump wins with 272. Having a record showing in California or New York does little to help with these strategic areas.

I’m not too certain what matters to the voters in these six states, but in Arizona, the BoRDEr cRiSis, as you condescendingly noted, probably matters to them. In all six of those states, you’ll need a get out a vote drive to convince people to vibe with Biden. Usually those people are young and have a little more free time. But not when they see a genocide unfolding in Palestine and the Biden administration being complicit. Are the Arab Americans of Deerborn, MI going to come out and vote for Biden and Tlaib again? Will Tlaib stump for Biden? Are young Blacks in Atlanta or Philly going to come out in droves for Biden? I don’t know.

I don’t know what ground work the DNC has been doing, but I hope they’ve built a trusted network to get people to the polls. Either way, I don’t think the “Republicans are fucked”. It think we are looking at a close election again.