Its why the Russians are unable to effectively attack into Ukrainian defenses anymore.

That’s not what is being reported. They are still making advances. Even pro-Ukrainian channels are reporting this.

But that’s what F16s are supposed to change

Its an interesting point, but possibly unlikely f16 would be deployed on the eastern side initially (where they are most needed), suspect their initial proving ground would be Crimea. Ukrainians have for some time now, been hitting russian SAM sites and radar installations in the area. It is also close to the “neutral” sea where NATO awacs and other spy drones can fly and monitor the situation (as well as warn Ukraine if russians scramble jets or any other countermeasures) as an advance warning system. We will very likely see their first use in this theatre as a test ground. And if this works out, we might see them being rolled out on the rest of the eastern front, but that is quite some time away practically. It will most likely depend if Ukraine has enough HIMARS ammunition to overwhelm and destroy more SAM sites it those areas.

In any case, I think the M2 Bradley is probably a match for T-55.

For sure, we seen the videos of some fights, it seems Bradley is the vehicle of choice in Ukraine at least in the released videos.

If you move, artillery can’t hit you.

Kinda false, there are a number of videos showing artillery hitting moving targets, maybe those are rare, but they are non-zero. Now I tend to hang around pro-Ukraine telegram channels so tend to see more pro-Ukrainian videos, but to suggest that russians can’t do something similar (even if rarely) is statistical insanity. I keep saying, if they (russians) were entirely incompetent across the board, the front lines would not be moving against Ukraine.

There are a number of videos of Ukrainians doing just that, even more where the target is first immobilised with FPV drone and then hit with artillery very shortly after the crew bails, indicating cooperation between drone and artillery groups but a small delay for artillery to wait for the target to be stationary and hit it pretty accurately.

That’s not how glide-bombs work.

If the glide bombs are easy to intercept, why are Uranians complaining about them all the time? If the front lines report its still a problem for them I am more likely to believe the news coming out of there than high command. The issue is where russians are using glide bombs in anger, is unlikely to be the first place where f16s are deployed, at least not initially. Which still presents an issue for Ukraine.

Finally, USA has given permission to use American equipment anywhere the Russians are attacking from

For the British side, they have quietly pulled the permission for storm shadow use inside Russia, just a couple examples. I am not sure how fake these are, but pro-Uranian telegram channel has reposted similar news. Permission was very publicly granted and than quietly “clarified”. Now if this some kind of confusion psyop or not, I am not sure. But the west seems to still be not entirely aligned. In fact I really hope it i just some kind of psyop thing to be honest.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/07/12/uk-clarifies-stance-on-storm-shadow-missiles-denies-permission-for-use-in-russia/ https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3885635-expert-criticizes-ban-on-strikes-on-russia-when-we-strike-with-our-own-weapons-there-is-no-escalation.html

As for the American systems, it seems odd that if Ukraine already has unlimited permission, why are there still articles about Ukraine asking for it repeatedly? Again maybe more deception from Ukraine, perhaps. I donno what to think. All I wish is for all restrictions to be lifted.

That’s Russia’s plan.

Absolutely agreed, it would be a terrible place to be in if all USA aid stopped, Europe already proved, it is not enough by itself to supply Ukraine adequately. And with US presidential election looming, it is really worrying me. Thankfully LePen didn’t win, as she threatened to revoke permission from using French weapons in russia.

To be honest, we both want Ukraine to win, and all was saying is that in a modern war where both sides have access to a lot of resources, there are no wonder weapons that will shift the game sufficiently to push for a quick win and that we should not underestimate the enemy. Things help and we in the West, should be doing more to help.

When we get to T-55, these tanks are unable to damage an M1 Abrams.

They don’t need to, they just need to do enough to make western tanks show up at which point they are artillery and drone targets. Ukrainians said so themselves in a number of videos. As soon as western tanks show up, they become priority targets. Plenty of video evidence for that in telegram channels too. Just like meat waves of Bahmut, its not the thing that causes damage, its the side effect.

Obviously its not the time to get complacent. But we can’t deny the shift in Ukrainian’s favor.

I will agree to this only when i see the battle lines moving in the right direction, pushing russians back. For now they are unfortunately still making gains everyday.

Neither apparent hurt for vehicles or manpower losses deters them. Do see Ukrainians making some gains recently from time to time, but overall, its still not going well enough.

To me its the crazy rules of engagement operated by western nations and limitations on strikes which is insane. When this embargo is lifted i think we will see some actual movement on the front. I fear f16 will be under the same embargo. Great that Ukraine will have them but overall i am not convinced they aill tip the war in their favour enough.

It seems that currently glide bombs are a large problem but for f16 to be effective, they need to have permission to engage russian fighter/bombers that tend to fire from deep inside russia, out of “allowed” reach for western missiles. To me thats a massive issue.

Problem is that they still have thousands in storage, even if they are in bad condition, a tank is a tank, it still has its place in war. They still have ifvs and they still have artillery and the biggest indicator is that they are still capturing territory regardless of huge losses.

At the rate of 10-20 tanks a day, you are still looking at 300-150 days before they start running out of stored ones, not counting that they are manufacturing some amount monthly. But battle lines don’t lie. They are still moving in the wrong direction. I don’t like it and wish Ukraine could retake those territories but russians are far from wasted no matter how much we all wish that they were.

Its a very bad mistake to underestimate your opponent and assume that some magic wonder weapon will suddenly tip the scale of war. The only thing that will do this is increased supply of western arms and removal of the absolutely insane rules of not attacking russian territory.

F16 by themselves will not be enough, but they will help of course. Hopefully to lower the damage to infrastructure and hopefully to damage russian air force.

Just keep in mind that russians get ~1mil conscripts a year. They can keep feeding their mince machine for a long time to come. Besides massively more support with heavy weapons without restrictions, I am not entirely sure Ukraine can outlast old ussr stockpiles…

Exactly as foretold by anyone with a single working braincell… (Or at least understanding of how computer security works)

Thats why i said, they are amazing value for money. But sould be interesting to know just how many boats it takes to take out 60 or so ships

You missed the point (and i should have perhaps been clearer), the chap was saying “no navy”, i am pointing out that suicide drones are still part of that navy and Ukrainians had 15000 personal at the start of the war in the navy.

You really gotta count how many cheap boat Ukrainians lost trying to sink 60 ships. Ofc they (suicide boats) are much, much, much cheaper and cause no crew casualties being remotely controlled. So it is super cost effective, And most importantly safe, but if you count pure numbers i am sure Ukrainian losses of those boats are massively higher.

But the fact that russians can still use their missles ships to launch missiles is a big issue. Even if there are fewer of those ships, its not 0 :(… Yet

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That is actually nice, is there a link to this that can be printed and posted?