Deme

I’m not sure how you managed to misunderstand, but by disruptions I was referring to precisely the kind of disruptions of the lives of ordinary people that - and I’m sure we can at least agree on this - they have quite successfully caused.

Our two parallel discussions are about the methods of protesting against the use of fossil fuels. Our discussions here exists because of JSO. It got you thinking about what should be done to get rid of the use of fossil fuels, even if this was just for the purposes of making counterarguments.

You do realize that you replied to a comment just now that raised the issue of fossil fuel subsidies, and the effect those have on the price and thus consumption of oil? Just ending those subsidies would already have a dramatic effect.

It’s true that the discussion is currently centered on freedom of speech, most notably because of the most recent developments, but the issue that is being protested is constantly present in the background. I’m betting that after the criminalization of protests stops being news, that issue gets back into the limelight.

Direct action against fossil fuel infrastructure would be less in the public due to a less central location. Sitting on a street works because it’s a nuisance to many, thus generating a lot of interest among the press and that way the message gets amplified. Gaining publicity via industrial sabotage would be difficult unless they did somehting very drastic, which would only turn them from a mere “nuicanse” into actual villains in the press. Especially so if some such drastic measure leads to the unintended death or injury of a worker at a refinery etc. This would also turn the fossil fuel companies from crooks into victims and I’m betting that they’d also try to frame it as sabotage hurting the blue collar workers they employ. All this while affecting the actual price of oil in a miniscule way at most and alienating the majority of their members who don’t accept these acts. Nonviolence is held in high regard.

The process I described unfortunately does take longer than the initial lashing outs of the establisment. A couple of “martyrs” may not be the worst thing either.

YungOnions already provided you with some good articles about why and how nonviolent disruption works. I suggest you read them.

You approach the whole issue as if it were just up to consumers to stop oil by changing their habits. It isn’t. Switching to an EV isn’t a solution when you’re still paying taxes that go into subsidizing fossil fuels. (Switching to an EV for getting around in a city isn’t a solution anyways, use public transit or get a bicycle). Consumers won’t stop consuming oil until the full cost (including all externalities) of it is shown in the price tag. Action is needed at the political level, and that won’t happen unless enough noise is made regarding the issue. That’s what JSO is doing.

Disruptions cause outrage

Outrage sparks discusson

Discussion leads to political pressure

Political pressure leads to action that targets the oil industry

Yeah, the best case scenario assuming that the world got its act together tomorrow…

Well, those are in higher orbits where there’s a lot more space. LEO is the biggest problem because it’s got the majority of all satellites and debris and it’s relatively small. GEO is also pretty crowded, but almost all the satellites there are flying in neat synchronization, because, well, Geostationary orbits.

Edit:

Maximum debris concentrations can be noted at altitudes of 800-1000 km, and near 1400 km. Spatial densities in GEO and near the orbits of navigation satellite constellations are smaller by two to three orders of magnitude.

• ESA

Plenty of current and future Earth observation satellites are at risk as well.

Cruise missiles are usually shot down with interceptor missiles, which are a lot more expensive.

What appeal to authority do you mean?

• first powered flight on a heavier than air craft. The first humans flew in 1783 on a hot air balloon.

I did write “mostly” for a reason. Aluminium is used a lot in aerospace due to its low mass. There is a lot of matter falling from space naturally, but the composition is key to the effects that will have on the atmosphere. Satellites, spent stages etc. have different compositions to meteors.

Over 20 elements from reentry were detected and were present in ratios consistent with alloys used in spacecraft. The mass of lithium, aluminum, copper, and lead from the reentry of spacecraft was found to exceed the cosmic dust influx of those metals. About 10% of stratospheric sulfuric acid particles larger than 120 nm in diameter contain aluminum and other elements from spacecraft reentry. Planned increases in the number of low earth orbit satellites within the next few decades could cause up to half of stratospheric sulfuric acid particles to contain metals from reentry.

• An earlier study from last October that this new one bulds on

https://phys.org/news/2024-06-satellite-megaconstellations-jeopardize-recovery-ozone.html

When old satellites fall into Earth’s atmosphere and burn up, they leave behind tiny particles of aluminum oxide, which eat away at Earth’s protective ozone layer. A new study finds that these oxides have increased 8-fold between 2016 and 2022 and will continue to accumulate as the number of low-Earth-orbit satellites skyrockets.

Those micrometeors aren’t mostly aluminium.