I’m not even going to TRY to list out all 435 House Races, but let’s keep the discussion on that here.
Particularly notable will be any flips from D to R or R to D.
Currently, the makeup of the House is:
https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown
220 Republicans
212 Democrats
3 Vacancies
Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) resigned effective 04/25/2024.
Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) died 07/19/2024.
Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) died 08/21/2024.
If the Republicans lose just 5 seats, control will flip from them, back to the Democrats with a majority of 217 to 215. Not even counting the three vacancies.
Not much because anything that starts in the House then moves to the Senate.
So, say you get a 290 vote super majority on a new Constitutional Amendment, it then has to go to the Senate which is likely to flip Republican and kill anything the House proposes.
So for the supermajority to be effective, the Democrats must also have the Senate and 26 states must be Democratic for the constitutional amendment to become a reality. Right?