Gabrielle Giffords, the former Democratic congresswoman who was grievously wounded in a 2011 shooting, is taking to the campaign trail for Vice President Kamala Harris, as Harris’ nascent presidential campaign gets off the ground and a parallel campaign to be Harris’ running mate takes shape.
My question is who is going to run for Mark Kelly’s senate seat in Arizona. He’s popular enough that the seat is safe now.
Is there another candidate that we can be sure will step in and keep the seat blue? If not, it’s probably best that Kelly stays where he is.
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Fun fact:
Arizona law actually stipulates that special appointments like a vacant Senate seat must go to someone from the same party as the person who vacated the seat. So even if AZ had a Republican gov, the seat would still have to be appointed to a Democrat.
2026 will be a midterm, which traditionally does not favor the party in the White House. The senate has been on a razor thin margin. A special election in Arizona with an unproven candidate is a legit concern.
Under Arizona law, the person appointed to Kelly’s vacant seat would serve out the remainder of his term. That means they’d have two years to ‘prove’ themselves to voters before having to run for the seat in 2026. I think that’s a reasonable amount of time, especially if governor chooses a strong replacement.
People who have been appointed have much lower odds for reelection than a incumbent that won the office.
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