The American strikes are likely to be accepted – and even privately praised – by a Middle East officialdom that has long seen Iran as the primary threat to regional stability.

If Iran had hoped its neighbors would rise to its defense in the wake of unprecedented American and Israeli attacks, that moment may have passed.

On Monday, Iran fired back at the U.S. with a strike on the American Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, in what is already being seen as merely a face-saving gesture. Qatar said it had intercepted the Iranian missiles and condemned the attack, calling it a violation of its sovereignty.

But even as Middle Eastern leaders were quick to criticize Donald Trump’s paradigm-shifting assault on Iran following 10 days of Israeli bombardment, the American strikes are likely to be accepted — and even privately cheered — by an Arab officialdom that has long seen Shia Iran as the primary threat to regional stability.

  • Saleh@feddit.org
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    14 hours ago

    The US couldn’t win in Iraq. They couldn’t win in Afghanistan.

    There is no way they would “win” when the flow of Oil and Gas gets cut off for them, the Gulfs are closed for them and the closest place to stage their airforce would be in Cyprus. The US could use its navy to deny oil and gas to everyone else too, but that would bring the rest of the world against them too. To properly reestablish control, they would need boots on the ground. This would require millions, maybe tens of millions of soldiers. Just between Iran, Iraq, Syria, Saudi, Yemen and Egypt and the Gulf states that is about 350 million people. Add Turkiye, Sudan, Libya, Algeria and Morocco and you get some more 250 million more on top.

    In such a scenario the US would most likely sacrifice Israel.

    • QuoVadisHomines@sh.itjust.works
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      9 hours ago

      America could have easily won in both nations had the American public been willing to accept the slaughter of millions of innocent non-combatants (rather than the tens to hundreds of thousands of non-combatant deaths they are ok with).

    • Cypher@lemmy.world
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      14 hours ago

      The US is an oil exporter, as it produces more than it uses.

      No one can cut off the US oil supply. Not to mention they could simply seize oil haulers for themselves with their navy.

      Your scenario is entirely unfounded.

      • marcos@lemmy.world
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        11 hours ago

        No one can cut off the US oil supply.

        Well, if the US invests on being able to use its own oil without mixing with anything else, the can become true.

        Not to mention they could simply seize oil haulers for themselves with their navy.

        A few times, yeah. The world won’t react well to the US specializing into constant piracy.

        • Cypher@lemmy.world
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          11 hours ago

          It would never come to piracy because the US would initiate regime changes, flatten militaries if they refuse to coup their governments and take the oil fields.

          The whole thing is like some child considered oil supplies for the first time and believes there aren’t plans in place.

          Hint: every developed nation has strategic oil reserves and is ready to go to war if supply is cut.

      • Saleh@feddit.org
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        14 hours ago

        And what happens if the Oil and Gas are cut off to the US and its allies? Even if the US is producing enough by now to cover itself domestically, it would need to jump in for all its allies, unless it wants to loose them. And well, they cannot product this much.

        • Cypher@lemmy.world
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          11 hours ago

          War happens, and countries will get flattened within weeks by a coalition.

          Most countries maintain strategic oil reserves in the event of war.

          It’s like you believe you’re the first person ever to consider what happens if oil supply is interrupted.

          • Saleh@feddit.org
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            10 hours ago

            War happens, and countries will get flattened within weeks by a coalition

            Why didn’t the US and UK and France flatten OPEC at its inception? Why did the US fail in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan?

            The military might of the US can flatten a lot, no doubt about it, but it cannot build something to its benefit after, unless it is some smaller countries.