Abstract

Focusing on predicting anomalously warm temperatures in Europe, this study delves into a coupled mechanism within the North Atlantic ocean. By examining the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic ocean, we unveil its potential for forecasting extreme European summers several years in advance. Through a novel ensemble selection approach that integrates this mechanism, we evaluate its impact on decadal temperature prediction skill. Our analysis demonstrates significant enhancements in both deterministic and probabilistic predictions of Central European summer temperature extremes over multiple lead years. These findings underscore the value of incorporating sub‐decadal oceanic processes into climate prediction methodologies, offering critical insights for mitigation strategies against the impacts of anomalous heat events.

Plain Language Summary

The occurrence of extremely warm summers in Europe has increased dramatically in recent years, and this trend is expected to continue as global temperatures rise. These anomalous heat events have significant impacts on society and the economy. It would be very helpful if we could predict these high‐impact events reliably and accurately several years in advance to minimize their potential consequences. In another study, we found that the heat buildup in the North Atlantic ocean plays a crucial role for the prediction skill of anomalously warm European summers. We discovered that the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic ocean precedes these anomalous events by several years. By using this storage of heat in the North Atlantic ocean, we improve the ability to accurately predict anomalously warm European summers.