The idea that just because FPTP mathematically guarantees a two-party system third parties can never succeed under it, usually invoked to get out of having to consider making a third party as a viable solution to the chokehold the establishment has on American politics and more recently Trumpian fascism.
So any 3rd party would have to capture literally everyone else to be viable. And that’s from both extreme ends of the spectrum as well as the middle. Those people who actually think about politics and consider who is running and might change.
It’s literally impossible. You’d have more luck doing what the tea party did. Get a chunk of people then invade the Republican party.
The math says I can’t fly, so I discount that as an escape route.
As you literally said yourself, third parties can still succeed in a two-party system if they can cannibalize one of the two major parties.
These people aren’t thinking. They vote their party because daddy voted that party. Just look at how few people change their party affiliation.
Huh? The article says more than 10% changed party affiliation in less than two years. That’s not “few”, that’s a lot. It’s proof people are, to some extent, thinking about their party affiliation.
Maybe I don’t understand, but I feel like the tea party wasted years being outside the Republicans. Once they got inside they were able to change things. So why follow in their failures? Why not jump right to their success?
Maybe I don’t understand, but I feel like the tea party wasted years being outside the Republicans. Once they got inside they were able to change things. So why follow in their failures? Why not jump right to their success?
The tea party had two advantages that the progressive movement doesn’t. First is a party leadership that knew it was floundering and was willing to let the public have the final verdict on the candidates they wanted (for more notice the difference between how the GOP treated Trump vs how the DNC treated and still treats Bernie). Second is billionaire money, lots of billionaire money. The progressive movement has a much harder task ahead of it than the tea party did, so expecting the same methods to work doesn’t make sense. I’ll copy part of my reply to someone else in this thread:
If that was the only problem then maybe, but the issue is the triple whammy of Dem leadership: Their economic policy is horrible, they lack the spine to do much of anything and they’ll fight you to the death if you try to change that. Any one—or even two—of these alone would’ve been solvable, but with all three it’s easier to just start from scratch. The the pre-existent party apparatus and brand recognition are very attractive, but the price you’ll pay is a bunch of gerontocrats who will keep demanding concessions so they keep you in the party and giving absolutely nothing in return, which among other things will lose you legitimacy with your base (see: Bernie and AOC) while dampening the speed of expansion of both your political base and footprint within the party. Hell, if they’re successful they just might be able to take enough of you to their side to permanently cripple your movement.
I’ve actually seen someone here argue that the left’s tea party happened in 2016 with Bernie’s candidacy in the primary and appearance of The Squad, and that it simply didn’t take hold for a number of reasons.
10% is very low, is my point.
In two years? No it’s not. For example if we assume that’s a constant rate that’d be more than a quarter of the whole party leaving in six years. And that’s with only the political establishment; actually make people’s lives better and you should be looking at a lot more than 10% every two years.
There’s no reason to assume it’s a constant rate. 10% during a time of absolute turmoil. That seems low to me. How many times have you changed your political leanings in your life? For me it was two changes in 25 years of voting. But let’s say we can swing that ten percent every two years. We’ll be ready to win something in 2033? We need to be faster.
And your point about tea party funding just means a progressive party would have even less success, wouldn’t it?
I still think getting progressive candidates into low level positions within the Dems is a quickly achievable goal. Next year even. Then we push mid level and up.
There’s no reason to assume it’s a constant rate. 10% during a time of absolute turmoil.
Why would a time of absolute turmoil mean people would switch parties more? Democrats wouldn’t go to the GOP for competent pandemic management (remember that Biden won in part because of Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic) and Republicans wouldn’t even acknowledge the damn virus existed. If anything you’d expect both sides to stick to their side with small minorities switching sides (Democrats because of lockdowns and Republicans because of the pandemic).
We’ll be ready to win something in 2033? We need to be faster.
If your point is that you need to be faster to stop fascism, then sorry to rain on your parade but electoral politics won’t stop fascism either way. That ship sailed in 2024, or in 2020/2016 depending on how you look at it. If you’re trying to organize a resistance you should be fighting for the hearts, minds and fucks to give of the people and pushing them into the streets; by the time you’re going to the polls it’ll all be over one way or the other.
And your point about tea party funding just means a progressive party would have even less success, wouldn’t it?
No? The DNC will never give your progressive candidates funding anyway, by “giving absolutely nothing in return” I meant absolutely nothing. You get all the shackles and compromises and none of the benefits until your hostile takeover is complete in the far future (at which point you’ll be already in concentration camps).
Next year even. Then we push mid level and up.
If you push one level per election you’ll take at least those same six years before you’re running for Congress so… uh… yeah.
Yeah that’s what I’m trying to say. It’s what I call the two-party fallacy.
Where the fallacy
The idea that just because FPTP mathematically guarantees a two-party system third parties can never succeed under it, usually invoked to get out of having to consider making a third party as a viable solution to the chokehold the establishment has on American politics and more recently Trumpian fascism.
The math says I can’t fly, so I discount that as an escape route.
I’m serious. 30% of voters self identify as Republicans. 30% more as Democrats. These people aren’t thinking. They vote their party because daddy voted that party. Just look at how few people change their party affiliation. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/04/voters-rarely-switch-parties-but-recent-shifts-further-educational-racial-divergence/
So any 3rd party would have to capture literally everyone else to be viable. And that’s from both extreme ends of the spectrum as well as the middle. Those people who actually think about politics and consider who is running and might change.
It’s literally impossible. You’d have more luck doing what the tea party did. Get a chunk of people then invade the Republican party.
As you literally said yourself, third parties can still succeed in a two-party system if they can cannibalize one of the two major parties.
Huh? The article says more than 10% changed party affiliation in less than two years. That’s not “few”, that’s a lot. It’s proof people are, to some extent, thinking about their party affiliation.
But the third party can’t win, that’s my point.
Maybe I don’t understand, but I feel like the tea party wasted years being outside the Republicans. Once they got inside they were able to change things. So why follow in their failures? Why not jump right to their success?
10% is very low, is my point.
The tea party had two advantages that the progressive movement doesn’t. First is a party leadership that knew it was floundering and was willing to let the public have the final verdict on the candidates they wanted (for more notice the difference between how the GOP treated Trump vs how the DNC treated and still treats Bernie). Second is billionaire money, lots of billionaire money. The progressive movement has a much harder task ahead of it than the tea party did, so expecting the same methods to work doesn’t make sense. I’ll copy part of my reply to someone else in this thread:
I’ve actually seen someone here argue that the left’s tea party happened in 2016 with Bernie’s candidacy in the primary and appearance of The Squad, and that it simply didn’t take hold for a number of reasons.
In two years? No it’s not. For example if we assume that’s a constant rate that’d be more than a quarter of the whole party leaving in six years. And that’s with only the political establishment; actually make people’s lives better and you should be looking at a lot more than 10% every two years.
There’s no reason to assume it’s a constant rate. 10% during a time of absolute turmoil. That seems low to me. How many times have you changed your political leanings in your life? For me it was two changes in 25 years of voting. But let’s say we can swing that ten percent every two years. We’ll be ready to win something in 2033? We need to be faster.
And your point about tea party funding just means a progressive party would have even less success, wouldn’t it?
I still think getting progressive candidates into low level positions within the Dems is a quickly achievable goal. Next year even. Then we push mid level and up.
Why would a time of absolute turmoil mean people would switch parties more? Democrats wouldn’t go to the GOP for competent pandemic management (remember that Biden won in part because of Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic) and Republicans wouldn’t even acknowledge the damn virus existed. If anything you’d expect both sides to stick to their side with small minorities switching sides (Democrats because of lockdowns and Republicans because of the pandemic).
If your point is that you need to be faster to stop fascism, then sorry to rain on your parade but electoral politics won’t stop fascism either way. That ship sailed in 2024, or in 2020/2016 depending on how you look at it. If you’re trying to organize a resistance you should be fighting for the hearts, minds and fucks to give of the people and pushing them into the streets; by the time you’re going to the polls it’ll all be over one way or the other.
No? The DNC will never give your progressive candidates funding anyway, by “giving absolutely nothing in return” I meant absolutely nothing. You get all the shackles and compromises and none of the benefits until your hostile takeover is complete in the far future (at which point you’ll be already in concentration camps).
If you push one level per election you’ll take at least those same six years before you’re running for Congress so… uh… yeah.