For thursday’s sentencing the us government indicated they would be happy with a 40-50 prison sentence, and in the list of reasons they cite there’s this gem:
- Bankman-Fried’s effective altruism and own statements about risk suggest he would be likely to commit another fraud if he determined it had high enough “expected value”. They point to Caroline Ellison’s testimony in which she said that Bankman-Fried had expressed to her that he would “be happy to flip a coin, if it came up tails and the world was destroyed, as long as if it came up heads the world would be like more than twice as good”. They also point to Bankman-Fried’s “own ‘calculations’” described in his sentencing memo, in which he says his life now has negative expected value. “Such a calculus will inevitably lead him to trying again,” they write.
Turns out making it a point of pride that you have the morality of an anime villain does not endear you to prosecutors, who knew.
Bonus: SBF’s lawyers’ list of assertions for asking for a shorter sentence includes this hilarious bit reasoning:
They argue that Bankman-Fried would not reoffend, for reasons including that “he would sooner suffer than bring disrepute to any philanthropic movement.”
Notably missing: grabbing a couple of millions and run of to a non extradition country.
He is so sure he can get out on top that running away doesn’t even hit his brainstorm top 19 list. He doesn’t write the list on paper and burn it later, because for it to backfire he would need to fail.
Insane confidence man.
Might have been trying to avoid creating a situation where his lawyers are legally obligated to go against him, which I believe they would be if they knew he was planning on running. Though I could be wrong.
That would show a level of foresight we’ve never really seen from him, but ultimately no one knows.