A new poll in New Hampshire shows Vice President Kamala Harris is six points ahead of former President Donald Trump in the battleground state.
The survey of more than 2,000 registered New Hampshire voters by Saint Anselm College took place on July 24-25, after Harris secured enough delegate support to become the likely Democratic presidential nominee.
Harris leads Trump 50% to 44% in the poll. A poll taken by Saint Anselm in June after President Biden struggled in the debate showed Trump edging out Biden in New Hampshire by two points.
Great. Glad to hear it. But don’t get complacent. Remind yourself that polls can change fast, and polling itself is a troubled science right now because of the difficulties involved in getting a statistically significant and unbiased sample with the advent of universal cellphones.
I came in here for exactly this.
DON’T GET COMPLACENT
Here is how to volunteer for text banking, apparently. I plan to get off Lemmy and do some later today.
The fuckin world could still end in January. Don’t get all complacent.
Yep, and you don’t have to limit yourself to just text banking too. There’s post card writing, canvassing, phone banks, vote registration drives, etc.
Here’s another site people can use to find a bunch of local volunteer opportunities around them
Thank you for sharing that link! More people need to see it.
I hope that orange fuck just gets crushed when election day rolls around. Then we’ll never have to hear from him again.
There is no scenario besides death where that last sentence is true. Even then you’re going to be hearing the same shit from his supporters for a long time.
I think you’re correct, but if he becomes completely nonviable, the party will phase him out. He’s a useful-ish idiot right now. That might not be true for long, and then maybe his legal safety nets will stop protecting him once they see he can’t do anything for them.
he’ll whine but I’m pretty sure if he loses he’ll spend the rest of his time on house arrest at his resort
Do polls make anyone else unreasonably angry?
Unless it’s 20 points, I can’t fathom how that many people support Trump. He never says anything of value in any speech. There’s no platform to support. He just needs power to avoid criminal consequences, and half the country is good with that.
Who answers these polls?
What percentage of the population?
What age groups?
What states?
Are these people who have answered polls in the past are on a list to call for other polls?
You only have to look back to the 2020 election or the support for Trump-loving Republicans in 2022 to recognize that there are still a ton of people who support that dumbass crook.
Who, here, has been “polled” in the past 10 years?
I have. But a big part of that is that I respond to polls. I use to work for a survey call center and I know that kind of hell it is and how much completed surveys can improve their pay for the next month, so I tend to do them if they call me.
I initially thought I had been. Like the other person commenting, I realize that completed surveys are good for the poor schmuck working in the call center. But a few questions in, the questions themselves became extremely biased. Like “were you aware that [Dem local candidate] voted in support of the LGBT agenda?” type shit. And then the “pollster” asked some questions that mentioned local towns in rural Minnesota - completely mispronounced. I asked where the caller was located. It turns out the local GOP candidate hired a call center in New York.
I don’t answer phone surveys anymore.
Yeah, those questions are the only the only way I stay sane. I’ve never been asked to participate in a poll so I have to assume the demographics are biased toward specific groups, like people who answer land line phones.
They are and is why polling has been broken
Yeah pretty much.
Something like 30% of your compatriots are mindless automatons. Only reason I’m not angry is because I’m desensitized to it. I have written down that fraction of America, those retrograde degenerates, since the early 2000s.
This one is especially dumb. And I think tells the story people keep repeating about not trusting any of these polls. Because the news wants a horse race.
In aggregated data, as of April 2020, Biden was 2% ahead of Trump in New Hampshire. Then 8% ahead by August. Then 11% ahead in October. Ended up beating Trump by 8% in the actual New Hampshire vote.
This year Biden was 2% ahead in May. Harris is supposedly 8% ahead now. That will continue to diverge and I’d bet land around 11% ahead again by October.
This is the news slow walking that Trump is still more popular than he really is to keep things interesting.
I got both my brother-in law and sister-in-law to sign up for automatic voter registration and mail-in-ballots! If you know people who lean left but are kind of apathetic voters, it pays to pester them (kindly)!
If everyone did this, we could massively amplify voter turnout.
It’s also worth having those conversations with family and friends who lean right. You’re the only ones who could possibly get through to them. Slow and steady is key.
Slow and steady is key.
Yeah. I tried “If you vote for Trump, you’re a racist.” That didn’t go well.
What worked better was 4 granddaughters and a gay grandson. Sometimes you just have to play the long game.
Yep, exactly! Also perhaps offering a trade, “Hey I’ll watch one thing of yours if you promise to watch one thing I send to you.” Then show them the documentary of, say, “The Brainwashing of my Dad.”
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Polls are garbage.
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The Horse Race demands more polls
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Whatever the poll results are, see #1
I disagree that polls are garbage. If that were the case, Biden would still be running for president. With that being said, ignore the polls and make sure you vote.
I’m not saying polls aren’t useful. I’m saying they’re tortured fabrications of some paper-thin slice of reality that can be moulded into whatever narrative is desired.
Occasionally, they mirror the actual zeitgeist. But more often than not, they’re simply created to push a narrative.
Does this also apply to exit polls?
Exit polls are marginally more useful. As always, and the thing polls do not account for: It Depends.
I lie at exit polls.
I’m not alone.You dang kids and your rock and roll music!
Dad?
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This is what happens when Democrats listen.
2% April, 8% July, 11% October is how much Biden was supposedly ahead in 2020. Then won by a bit under 8%.
Polls for New Hampshire in 2024 have been following a similar pattern. Harris being ahead 6% is slightly below Biden at this same time last election. Which isn’t much to get hyped about.
Yo. If she is elected, maybe he goes to prison.
Go on…
Maybe his nepotistic kids with their stupid fucking faces could join him there.
Fucker should already be in jail. I cross my fingers everyday that he drops dead from something.
Yo. If she is elected, maybe he goes to prison.
SCOTUS just whiplashed
Keep in mind NH is only vaguely a battleground at the federal level, Biden won it by 7+ points in 2020 and they haven’t voted for a Republican president since 2000 and even then Bush barely eked out a win. Push against the fascists still!
But what it does show is a major momentum shift. Going from Trump +2 after the debate (polling Biden vs Trump) to Harris +6 in the same state from the same polling organization is nothing to scoff at
Though as other people have said, polls don’t determine elections, we do. Elections are only won when people get involved and when people vote
Harris is showing within the margin of error for polls nationally
What we really want to do is look at her chances of winning each state to see the probable delegate total but it’s WAY too early to tell and either way we shouldn’t get complacent
Each swing state specifically
I hear you, but Hillary took it by less than 1% in 2016.
I like that USA is now talking about their own person instead of giving the orange one all the attention
Trump edging out Biden
Oh ffs the imagery. Phrasing, please.
Don’t worry! I’ll help you out here
Trump edging
outBidenThere you go. I edited it for you.
Supporting Trump is so 2016, get with the times…
Go vote!
New Hampshire is 4 seats. Come back when she’s winning Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Virginia, Nevada, or North Carolina
It’s hardly been five days.
And November is a long way away. These articles about polling are ridiculous. Harris isn’t even officially the candidate yet
Yet here you are, complaining that she isn’t ahead in all these swing states yet. So which is it? She hasn’t done enough yet or it’s too soon to tell?
You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
New Hampshire is 4 seats. Unless the race has been decided by single digits, this is a non story. Polling in July doesn’t tell you anything. See?
What I see is you speaking out of both sides of your mouth.
Also, hasn’t gone to a republican in over 20 years…
Remember a week ago when there was “not enough time” to replace Biden? Clearly that was bullshit but no one wants to talk about it.
That’s still accurate now. It would be a 1968 situation all over again if not for everyone agreeing to rally around Harris. Had multiple people stepped forward we’d all be arguing over that at least into September.
Given the recent developments, it turns out its a risk worth taking. Even better had Biden dropped out sooner.
Who cares?
The lack of cognitive dissonance is astounding. This is the same group think that you lambast Republicans for. Maybe we should be better than that? Maybe?
I’ll stop bringing up how wrong they were. But it will take as long as it took centrists to stop blaming Sanders supporters for the loss Clinton earned.
